NBA: Role players are the wagering key in Game 4
The tape of Game 3 of the NBA Finals between Boston and Los Angeles won’t be sent to the Basketball Hall of Fame
2008-06-12
The tape of Game 3 of the NBA Finals between Boston and Los Angeles won’t be sent to the Basketball Hall of Fame, with a grand total of four players scoring in double figures and the total coming in 27.5-points below projected oddsmakers’ number. Game 4 offers new and exciting wagering opportunities, including a 7-point spread on which 72% of early bettors are backing the underdog Celtics.
Regardless of how it looked, the series picked up some juice with the Lakers winning, meaning everyone is able to stay the weekend in Los Angeles and maybe head down the coast and catch a little U.S. Open golf action. Kobe Bryant finally stepped up his game with 36 points and no way L.A. wins without the 20 from Sasha Vujacic. For Boston, this had to be mildly disheartening, Ray Allen is starting to place like the guy who wore a Seattle and Milwaukee uniform previously, but Paul Pierce managed to miss 14 of 16 shot attempts.
Before pressing on, this 2-3-2 format is proven how stupid it really is this season. ESPN’s John Barry was quoted after Game 3 (as was Phil Jackson) saying he thought it was a jet lag game. Neither team was sharp from flying cross country. Fair enough, then why will their be two games in this series played with two days of rest in the same city, with potentially another cross-country flight with just one day between the sports most important games?
Game Four of the series will be about who shows up to make a meaningful contribution. In the boxscore, Lamar Odom is listed as PF, commonly known as power forward and Vlad Radmanovic is shown as SF, a shooting forward. Odom has was once again a non-factor, shooting 2-9 and seldom in position to make positive plays, yet maybe in his case, the PF stands for personal fouls, since he picked up five again. Vlad Rad saw his minutes fall to 13, as his defensive deficiencies are visibly noticed and his lack of offense (3 points) can not overcome.
If the Lakers expect to improve upon 11-3-1 ATS record off a win, both of those players along with Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher have to play with more aplomb. Gasol has been as soft as a marshmallow in the middle, making his chest-thumping appear comical, when like an NFL cornerback burned six times in a row, jumps up to celebrate after he made a big hit on receiver 20 yards down the field. Coming into the Finals, it was thought Fisher’s experience would create an edge over the Celtics Rajon Rondo, it hasn’t. If the Lakers expect to make this a best two of three, the aforementioned four individuals have to bring their game and attitude to Staples Center for Los Angeles to win and move to 9-3 ATS as home favorites.
For all the good Rondo had done in Boston, he was discombobulated when Bryant started Game 3 guarding him. He was unable to get into the flow thereafter, before rolling is ankle, making him questionable for tonight. This becomes a real issue for the Celtics, since Rondo whole game is based on quickness and speed, without these traits, Sam Cassell and Eddie House are next options, suggesting these slow afoot, shoot-first point guards may see greater ball pressure from the Lakers, as well as double-teaming to force them to make snap judgments. Coach Doc Rivers will need to implore his back-ups to get the ball over half court quicker, since on average, the Celtics start their offensive sets just under three seconds slower when Rondo is not in the game in this series. How this trio plays tonight, will go a long way in determining what Boston’s 3-7 ATS road record will be after the game.
For the C’s to rebound in Game 4, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett can not play the same again. Pierce played like was pushing too hard, trying to prove to posse; he was California cool, while showing street toughness being back home on the big stage. Look for him to be more relaxed, after practicing a few gang signs. Boston is 29-12 against the spread on the road after playing as an underdog and Garnett personally let a golden opportunity slip thru his fingers. Garnett was 6-21, totaling 13 points. When he set up shop in or near the lane, the less athletic Gasol is rendered useless to stop him. When he drifted out on the perimeter as he often prefers to, coach Phil Jackson could have gotten Radmanovic more minutes.
When asked after Game 3 why he didn’t demand the ball more in the post, since the Celtics offense is more fluid, Garnett responded, "...Hell, if I knew that, I would have done it ... Obviously in the course of a game you try to mix things up ... but for the most part, I watched this game ... But you're right. I probably do need to take the ball to the basket a little more." Just think about how good he would have been playing with Michael Jordan as second fiddle.
As expected, a win by the favorite means the number goes down and the Lakers are 7.5-point favorites with Total having dipped to 191 at Sportsbook.com. The Celtics have covered each contest in this series and are 8-1 ATS when underdogs in the 5-10 point range. Los Angeles has yet to cover versus the C’s in five tries this season.
Even with the total dropping, coach Rivers club is 14-6 UNDER as a road underdog this season, while L.A. is 16-4 UNDER after a win by six points or less this season.
Expect the stars to shine with tipoff set for 9:05 Eastern, since they will ultimately decide Game 4, however it will be the other players for both teams that will put these individuals in position to be adored.
StatFox Power Line – Lakers by 5
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